“Florida” Low/Nor’easter over W. Atlantic – 104.5 WOKV

Date: 2021-11-09 03:55:59

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!…..First Alert Hurricane Survival GuideCity of Jacksonville Preparedness GuideGeorgia Hurricane Guide.

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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking… & realize the cone is the average forecast error over a given time – out to 5 days – & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage therefore do not become fixated on the center of a tropical system.

The last name on this season’s Atlantic list has now been used. A combination of a bunch of short term storms this year (8 were “alive” for less than 48 hours) + “non-conventional” (quick to pull the trigger, in other words) manner in which NHC now names storms has led to the 3rd year (2005 & 2020) in which all names have been used up. Wanda was a “fish storm” in the truest sense ….. as in “A Fish Called Wanda” (??).

Low pressure (the late week/early weekend Fl. No’easter) is well offshore over the W. Atlantic. Some subtropical characteristics seemed to be evident on satellite imagery Sunday while over/near the Gulf Stream. The low will continue to move northeast over the Western & Central Atlantic before turning more eastward later this week at which point some subtropical development will be possible. The low will continue to move away from the U.S. allowing rough seas & surf to slowly subside.

Otherwise…. it seems an autumn upper level weather pattern is becoming well established across the N. Hemisphere & Atlantic Basin. The result may be that the Atlantic tropical season is essentially over. Any new tropical development will likely be more out to sea over the broad Atlantic with a tendency to move east & northeast away from the U.S. One area to watch will be the Caribbean but even there any developing will system will most likely move east &/or northeast – nothing indicated at the moment.

Saharan dust. Dry air – yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of the plume then try to develop if everything else happens to be favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones.

2021 names….. “Wanda” was the last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization… repeat every 6 years… historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18… Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20]). “Adria” is next. Last year – 2020 – had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided – beginning this year – that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times – 2005 & 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic & remains pretty impressive late in the season from the Central/NW Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

The East Pacific:

“Terry” & “Sandra” are over the East Pacific. Both system will remain quite weak while moving west over the open ocean – no impacts on any land areas….

West Pacific IR satellite:

Global tropical activity:

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