Date: 2021-09-02 11:42:54
Boston (CBS) – Here we are again. For the fourth time this year, a tropical system, or its remnants, is set to move over southern New England.
Elsa, Fred, Henry and now Ida – it’s been this kind of summer.
Believe it or not, in some areas, Ida’s leftovers may deliver the biggest hit of all. While it will move quickly, we do get some heavy rain overnight, some of the rainiest we’ve seen all summer. Add that to already saturated land (Boston has received 17 inches of rain in the past two months and had the third wettest summer ever) and you have a recipe for all kinds of flood problems.
The peak of the storm really occurs after 11 pm between 11 pm and 7 am, and heavy rain waves will cover the area. Rain will fall in buckets, sometimes at rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour. Storm banks won’t be able to keep up. Areas that receive 3 inches or more in a 3-hour period will be at risk of significant flash floods.
a Flash Flood Warning Valid through Thursday morning for most Massachusetts.
Some models indicate a high flood probability in parts of our area, which is rare in 1 in 10 years. This means not only urban and small area flooding but some river flooding as well. Basements exposed to water and roads subject to washing can easily overflow overnight.
If you live in a flood-prone area or have problems when it rains heavily, this can be a long night.
Jackpot Rain Zones:
While it initially looked as if the highest rainfall totals would be over southernmost New England, including the Cape and the Islands, those forecasts have changed little.
The center of Ida’s remains is now expected to appear over the southeastern massif (a few days ago it looked like it would slide south of our region). With this change of course, areas along and north of the Pike are now more at risk of receiving higher final precipitation totals. This includes parts of southern New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine as well.
What is the price:
Almost all of southern New England appears to be getting along with 2.5 to 5 inches of rain overnight. The worst case scenario for some isolated areas is up to 6 to 7 inches of rain. That’s about what we usually get in about two months – it all comes in about 6 to 10 hours.
The Cape and Islands may end up with a bit of rain, somewhere near 1 to 2 inches of rain, as you’ll likely be on the south side of the trail. More precipitation will come in the form of scattered convection (thunderstorms) and is more variable from place to place.
Most of our region will not need to worry about severe thunderstorms, however, there is a high probability of severe weather appearing across the mid-Atlantic states. This high-risk area extends offshore and cuts across the southern New England coast. So, given this, we can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm or two or an occasional hurricane over the south coast, cape and islands overnight.
Most of the winds from this storm will remain high (above ground level), but there is a fairly high risk of 30 to 45 mph winds along the East Coast and southeastern coastal areas of Massachusetts overnight into early from Thursday. Winds this strong usually don’t cause much concern along our coast, but due to the amount of precipitation that is flooding the land, some trees are likely to fall and some sporadic blackouts are likely in this area.
As always, we encourage you to follow updates on WBZ-TV, CBSBoston.com and CBSN Boston before, during, and after the storm passes.
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